Politically, Iran has not made significant progress in its relations with the United States, and the confrontation between these two countries has not disappeared. This means that in the near future, there will be a reformulation of the Middle East.
The importance of the recent nuclear deal lies in the fact that it has caused a shift in the balance of forces within the existing model. Some countries have managed to strengthen their positions, while others have ended even more isolated.
Achievements of Bashar al-Assad
The main beneficiary of the end of the sanctions in Teheran (besides the U.S. and Iran) is the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Along with the start of the operations of the Russian Forces, the nuclear agreement not only reinforced the official regime in Damascus, but also has eliminated the possibility for Assad´s government to be overthrown.
The main loser
Saudi Arabia, which somehow is trying to break the negotiation process and extend the civil war, is not the only obstacle against the removal of sanctions.
In this moments, Saudi Arabia is not achieving any relevant victories in foreign politics, which is why the rest of nations could follow the steps of Qatar. There is no winning a cold war for Riyadh against Iran.
Russia´s concerns
Russia has mixed feelings about the lifting of the sanctions from Iran. On one hand, the return of Iranian oil to Europe and the possibility of gas in the Old Continent could mean serious problems in the Russian economy. If Iran is really planning on duplicating the exports of black gold (reaching 2 million barrels in fall) and Saudi Arabia cancel the measures for increasing the price of the oil, the Russian budget will be gravely affected.
Besides, the arrival of European companies to Iran, complicates Russian business in the country. Europe and China, not Russia, will be the ones domination the Iranian market. Finally, Moscow is worried about the normalization of the foreign relations between Iran and Europe, because this could mean less importance for their economic relationship with Teheran.
Play the cards right.
This fears of Russia could be exaggerated. If Moscow play the cards right, the removal of the sanctions against Iran could not only provoke the consolidation of the political relation between Iran and Russia, but also considerably reinforce the position of Kremlin in the Middle East. To do that, is necessary to have a neutral stance in the conflict with Saudi Arabia, and propose a collaboration among parts.
Moscow should collaborate with Iran in Syria, and at the same time sell weapons to the Saudi allies, to increase their military and political capacity. In this case, Saudi Arabia as well as Iran, will understand that neither of them have exclusivity with Moscow, and will not dare enter a conflict against Russia, who could move to the rival side.
In ideal scenario, Moscow could even be the mediator in the conflict, a fact that definitely could rise Russia to the level of the greatest powers.
Russia as a mediator
Russia is offering help in the conflict, after Riyadh executed Sheikh Nimr Baqir al-Nimr. A spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry said “We have always worked for the good relations between Teheran and Riyadh. We could play a mediating role, if both parties agree. We would be pleased to do so”.
He also explained that Moscow gives great importance to the relations between the regional leaders of Middle East, because of the role they play in the oil markets and other international affairs. “We were happy to see Iran and Saudi Arabia working together in the international support for Syria. Thanks to our efforts and the effort of America, we could create this mechanism. We hope it will continue working”.